What's actually happening in the San Diego market
Three forces are pulling in different directions right now, which is why the headlines feel contradictory.
1. Rates crossed 7%, and that cools competition more than prices
The 30-year fixed jumped to about 7.28% on October 1, the highest since November 2023, with the 10-year Treasury around 5.2%. Higher rates shrink buying power, but they've also thinned the bidding wars of a few years ago. Fewer buyers per listing can mean more room to negotiate, especially on homes that have sat.
2. Prices are still rising on tight supply
The county detached median was about $1,075,000 in September, up 7.1% from a year ago. Homes sold in a median 16 days on just 2.4 months of supply (a balanced market is closer to 5 to 6 months). Translation: there still aren't enough homes, so quality listings don't linger. Those were mostly contracts signed before rates crossed 7%, so watch the next few months for a slowdown in days on market first.
3. Insurance is the new wildcard
The cost that's changed the most isn't the mortgage, it's homeowner's insurance. On October 15 the state FAIR Plan's average 29.1% rate increase takes effect for more than 675,000 policyholders, and State Farm won an emergency 17% rate hike in 2025. In more San Diego zip codes, insurance now moves your monthly math as much as the interest rate. Price it before you fall for a house.
The case for buying now
- Less competition than the frenzy years, higher rates pushed some buyers to the sidelines, so you're less likely to be one of ten offers.
- Price is the one thing you lock in, the county median is still climbing, up about 7% from a year ago, so waiting for a dip has not paid off.
- You can refinance a rate; you can't refinance a price, if rates fall later, you refinance. If you wait and prices climb again, that's permanent.
- Rent isn't cheap either, every month renting is a month not building equity in one of the country's most supply-constrained markets.
The case for waiting
- The payment is genuinely high right now, at 7.28%, the monthly cost stings. If it forces you to stretch, that's a real risk.
- The Fed has already moved, it raised a quarter point on September 16 and said decisions stay data dependent; some buyers want to see where rates settle.
- Insurance and taxes may keep rising, budget for the all-in cost, not just principal and interest.
- Your life comes first, if a job, a move, or your savings aren't settled, the market timing is secondary.
The part most articles skip: it's a neighborhood question
"The San Diego market" is a fiction. In the same county, La Jolla runs a different playbook than Chula Vista, and coastal North County behaves nothing like East County. Some neighborhoods sit at under 2 months of supply (still a seller's market); others are at 4 to 8 months (real negotiating room). The county average tells you nothing about the street you actually want.
That's the whole reason this site exists: median price, days on market, supply, and a 5-year trend for 40+ San Diego communities, updated monthly. Start with your target neighborhood before you decide anything.
Four communities, same county, same month, and four different markets:
Detached where applicable; Downtown is condo-heavy. Source: SDAR/CRMLS InfoSparks, Sep 2026. Full data for 40+ communities at mjiq.com.
What the median payment actually looks like
At about 7.28% with 20% down on the $1.08M county median, you're looking at roughly $5,900/month in principal and interest, closer to $7,000 once you add San Diego property taxes and insurance. Your real number swings a lot with the neighborhood and your down payment. Run your exact scenario →
So, should you buy?
Run it through three honest questions:
- Can you afford the all-in payment, including taxes and insurance, without stretching? Check with the affordability calculator.
- Will you stay at least 5 years? That horizon rides out short-term swings.
- Does a specific neighborhood in your budget actually work for your life? If yes, the macro timing matters far less than most people think.
Three yeses, and now is very likely a fine time for you, regardless of the headlines. If you're unsure, that's exactly the conversation I have with people every week. No pressure, just a straight read.
Thinking of selling instead?
Flip the same data around and it's a different story. County supply is about 2.4 months, well under the 5 to 6 that signals a balanced market, detached homes are selling in a median 16 days, and the median is up about 7% from a year ago. A countywide number still says nothing about what your specific block is doing, and plenty of pockets are still firmly in seller territory. If you've owned for a few years, your equity position is likely stronger than the headline suggests.
Read: is now a good time to sell in San Diego County? →
See what your neighborhood is actually doing →, or call or text 619-889-0708 for a straight read on your street and price point.